Azerbaijan Country Studies: A brief, comprehensive study of Azerbaijan (Country Notes)
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We offer Masters courses in the main areas of global development, international relations and security, and politics for you to further develop your skills and interests. During your PhD you can experience a supportive, stimulating and challenging research environment alongside academics who share your passion for your subject. The ideas that we generate, the research that we create is not just academic; it has real-world policy impact.
See more news like this. See more events like this. Are you p… t. Vhoneymanleeds says Labour "still has a long way… t. Skip to main content University links. Close quicklinks. School of Politics and International Studies. Research expertise Our academic community contributes to research and analysis in the areas of democratic engagement, global development, responsibility to protect, security studies, and political theory. For several years, the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders have met only at long intervals.
Currently there are no plans for another meeting. Baku thought that the surprise political transition in Armenia might bring a way out of the impasse. Were there progress toward resolution of the conflict, Azerbaijan might be willing to see Armenia join long-term regional integration projects, from the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway to the oil and gas ventures involving Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
But this initial optimism has faded. Several opinion makers in Azerbaijani media — some having misread the situation, others playing to nationalist sentiment to raise their profiles — called for military strikes to regain territory or held out war as an option had the upheaval in Armenia worsened. In Armenia, as noted in an earlier Crisis Group commentary , there were reports of Azerbaijani movements at the line of contact which Baku denied. But in contrast to the pundits, most high-level officials in Baku remained calm in their statements.
The Azerbaijani government feared Yerevan would provoke a confrontation so that the Armenians who had gathered on the streets to protest against the government would rally round the flag instead.
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Baku rooted its caution in the perception that any military action, even a small provocation, would unify Armenians behind the government, possibly leading the demonstrations to dissolve. Similarly, Armenian protesters, led by the formerly obscure MP Nikol Pashinyan, who is now prime minister, seemed aware of that risk. Azerbaijan had good reason to be transparent about its intentions. In , when Sargsyan first came to power, deadly fighting which each side accuses the other of starting along the line of contact had coincided with a police crackdown on demonstrators in Yerevan.
Tens of thousands had been protesting the outcome of the presidential election; their candidate, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, had lost to Sargsyan.
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The fighting helped change the mood in Armenia, redirecting anti-government anger outward. Baku wanted to present this change as a first step toward reform at home. Instead, the Yerevan events overshadowed the cabinet reshuffle, leaving it almost unnoticed. Nikol Pashinyan was elected prime minister of Armenia on 8 May, with the backing of the Republican Party that had ruled under Sargysan.
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Overall, Baku recognises that, in the short term, the new premier is unlikely to adopt a radically different position on Nagorno-Karabakh from that of his predecessor. That said, opinion in Baku is marked both by potential misperceptions about the new Armenian premier and a number of fears. The first misperception is that Pashinyan is a dove on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Some Azerbaijani analysts cite as evidence his links to the former Armenian president, Ter-Petrosyan, who was forced to resign in by elite opposition to his perceived openness to compromise on the conflict. But in reality, little suggests Pashinyan is a dove, and though he backed Ter-Petrosyan against Sargysan in , the two have never shared policy ideas on Nagorno-Karabakh. Yet this pronouncement should not be taken at face value: at the time, Russia had just sent a shipment of arms to Azerbaijan, and Pashinyan was speaking in anger.
He did not support the later decision of his Yelk parliamentary faction to incorporate an anti-EEU stance into its platform. Indeed, since becoming prime minister, Pashinyan has taken pains to ensure he is not seen as anti-Russian. They believe that when that gambit fails, Pashinyan will pivot toward the West, leading to a deterioration in Armenia-Russia relations that will benefit Azerbaijan.
In reality, however, a major shift in Armenia-Russia relations for now appears unlikely. Baku also has a number of concerns related to the change in leadership. The first relates to the fact that Pashinyan heads a minority government vulnerable to challenge.
He appears likely to call snap parliamentary elections — he promised to do so before he was named prime minister and a fresh poll would give him the chance of strengthening his position in parliament. At least until that vote, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue will likely remain a pressure point deployed by the opposition which holds the majority in parliament against Pashinyan — any sign that the new premier is insufficiently tough could be used to undermine him. Once he does call for a vote, Nagorno-Karabakh could easily become the main campaign issue.
Pashinyan himself has promised to increase the military budget and made hard-line pronouncements on Nagorno-Karabakh that could be escalatory.
Until recently, that meant the presidents and the foreign ministers. The implementation of fixed exchange rate regime for 20 years resulted in a formation of an insecure currency position for all interest groups, including the government and business. Although the pressures on manat have commenced to increase since the second half of , the Central Bank and the government failed in comprehending the process.
That is why, promising statements have been made to the general public. But the following events proved the underlying problem more severe and the implemented monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies ineffective in the long-term. Business, citizens, as well as state-owned enterprises faced serious financial losses. The country experienced serious threats with regard to its financial sustainability.
This is a hard-to-be comprehended statement by the academic and research communities, who did not expect the result of the US presidential elections to turn out this way. Needless to say, these predictions were proven false by the final election results.
Azerbaijan - International - Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Without a doubt, is considered as one of the painful years for the economy of the country. That is to say, the economy of the country encountered nearly 4. According to the legislation on the Budget system, the legislative project on the state budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan for and the state and consolidated budget projects of were publicized on 29th of September, It has been three years that the legislative projects on the consolidated and state budgets of the Republic of Azerbaijan are being prepared amidst the absence of positive economic trends for the country.
Specifically, during the preparation of state budget, external and internal economic impacts were considered at greater extent.
As in previous years, the Center for Economic and Social Development has prepared a comparative analysis of the budget project publicized by the government…. Taking into consideration the current status in the country, the Energy Union could provide to Azerbaijan a position of stability and security through the implementation of all 5 policy areas that the EU suggests supply security, a fully-integrated internal market, energy efficiency, climate action-emision reduction and research and innovation ….
Currency market in Azerbaijan: Challenging environment for the national currency. The trade relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union are a substantial part of enhancing economic and political relations among both parties. Moreover, trade in services and foreign direct investment relations were also on rise.
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On the other hand, Azerbaijan is one of the main energy suppliers of the European Union among European Neighborhood countries and is a key partner to guarantee energy security. Download Full Paper here. It has already been three month since the national currency of the Republic of Azerbaijan continuously loses its value. Overall, Manat lost During the course of Azerbaijan suffered the impact of two devaluations of the national currency, Azerbaijani Manat AZN , due to the decrease of the world oil prices.
The current situation has led Azerbaijan to establish new priorities that could help restructure the financial system at this critical moment. The drastic change in the economic outlook of the country has created the need to open a wider window to the European Union EU in order to overcome the current economic downturn. The bilateral relations between Azerbaijan towards the EU have not reached fully its potential, if we compare it with other countries that have the same profile.
The Economy of Azerbaijan in 2017 (Comprehensive Analysis)
A possible geopolitical change of Azerbaijan towards the European Union could be the first step to a transformation in the structure of the country and an improvement in the sectors of energy, trade, migration, tourism and agriculture…. In and years thereafter, the economies of Turkey and Russia will experience considerable change due to sanctions imposed by the Russian government as a response to the downing of a Russian war plane in November The dissolution of Russian-Turkish ties has also affected neighboring regions, especially the South Caucasus.
As a result, there will be a transformation in economic, political,demographical and social trends. The sectors of agriculture, energy and especially tourism will face tremendous changes with the performance of new key players…. In , the expansion of the US economy accompanied with improved employment rates led the FED to switch to contractionary monetary policy.
On the other hand, the second largest economic power-China encountered a lower long-term economic growth rate with a fall in exports, and thereby adversely affecting global economic activity. Moreover, the rapid decline of prices in global fuel markets, owing to fundamental and political reasons, resulted in an economic downturn in countries reliant on their fuel exports, while importers experienced a higher economic activity in parallel with lower inflation expectations.
Since the monetary and economic policies were originally anchored to the oil price of 90 USD, the average of That is to say, the Central Bank could no longer pursue the fixed exchange rate regime, and switched to the floating regime. As a result, national currency lost its value by Baku is distinguished for its balanced approach to the foreign policy, which tries to manage the balance between the West, Russia, Turkey and, of course, Iran. Even so, the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have a particular specificity.
There are many reasons for this. After the Arab conquest the Islamisation of Iran , Azerbaijanis role in the history of Iran is not less significant than the Persians. For many centuries, they were part of a single state. Since the Islamisation of Iran in the VII century, the predominant number of the dynasties that have established their own state and ruled in Iran, or the region including the territory of modern Iran, have Azeri roots or ethnically were very close to Azerbaijanis. Qajars — the last Iranian dynasty, which had Azerbaijani roots — were overthrown by the Persian Pahlavi dynasty in Just this factor alone would be sufficient for making the Azerbaijani-Iranian relations specific.
Nevertheless, there are other points. The paper provides an overview of budget in Azerbaijan. It begins in Section 2 with a description of total public revenue in Azerbaijan, size of revenues from main sources, how this has changed between and , and a brief review of components. Section 3 provides detailed account of how public allocation of spending has changed over and , its structure and individual spending components.
Section 4 concludes. The short history of transition to the economic model is based on the modern principles of the market and assurance to the trade surplus that was formed by natural resources within external trade. During previous periods in Azerbaijan these ones were considered the main causes for the shape of production and export opportunities according to the principles of comparative advantage.
In addition, exports are approximately six times less than imports. Additionally, the agricultural sector needs to be more profitable in Azerbaijan. For the reasons mentioned above, the main aims of this research are to analyze the local characteristics of agriculture, to define the export possibilities and products that have comparative advantages in agriculture, and to research about countries in which there are more suitable market conditions and export opportunities. Azerbaijan is a reliable partner in the energy security issue for the oil importer countries.