The Changing Fortunes of Childcare 2003-2013
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Throughout much of its history, for-profit postsecondary providers have. This, along with the filing of lawsuits, had adversely affected the stock performance of most companies in this sector as virtually all have been tainted by association. Similar headline risks have affected some in the for-profit K school sector e. Impact of performance of comparable stocks. The stocks of education companies within a specific sub-sector tend to move together.
As a result, negative newswhether external or operationalrelating to one company could have a detrimental effect on the share prices of others. Until investors truly segment the industrys innovators from other publicly held competitors, this unwarranted negative association may continue.
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Access to capital markets. An influx of private capital fueled much of the early growth in. Earlier this decade, as these investors rationalized their current holdings, they were somewhat reluctant to inject fresh capital into the space. Although there has been an inflow of fresh capital in certain components of the industry e.
http://sighpress.de/cms/includes/map2.php Lack of liquidity had also impacted the student loan market underlying the postsecondary sector as the loan securitization markets dried up. In the remainder of this report, we analyze in detail the four major sectors in the education industry: childcare, K, postsecondary, and corporate training. A summary of this analysis is found in Exhibit 9. Potentially latercycle, relatively little negative impact seen during last recession. Budgetary shortfalls hurt during recession; should improve as economic recovery matures.
Regulatory, increasing competition traditional universities, online enablers, MOOCs , economic expansion.
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Somewhat countercyclical enrollment and tuition levels historically increase during and after a downturn. Economic cyclicality, shift from instructorled to e-learning, increasing competition from other sectors i. Potentially latercycle recovery, although apparently more discretionary than previously thought. Note: For-profit revenues may differ somewhat from the segments for-profit projections within the remainder of this report as they may exclude certain categories.
However, we caution investors this is a highly fragmented industry where few companies have been able to achieve significant scale. Center-based childcare has gained share since ,. According to childstats. However, since center-based care has expanded its share from We will focus this section of our report on center-based care and the like.
Exhibit Note: Mother and father care each refer to care while the mother worked. Other relatives include siblings and other relatives. Center-based care includes day care centers, nursery schools, preschools, and Head Start programs. Other nonrelative care includes family day care providers, in-home babysitters, and other nonrelatives providing care in either the childs or providers home.
Source: www. According to Private Enterprise and Public Education, published in , researcher Todd Grindal estimates that about half the children under the age of five in the US that regularly attend childcare do so in non-public i. Limited and conflicting reports. Information about the size of the current childcare market is limited.
Some of the estimates include:. Projected 3. We forecast steady growth over the next few years, driven primarily by more two-workingparent families, wage inflation which should drive continued tuition increases and the growing efforts of legislators to fund these programs.
While the population of children under age 5 has been on a down-cycle in recent years, we believe this could be offset by higher market penetration rates. Using the Census Bureau estimate as our base for market size, we forecast for-profit childcare expenditures to grow by roughly 3.
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